"Vernor Vinge - Technological Singularity" - читать интересную книгу автора (Vinge Vernor)

while yet, the general critics of machine sapience will have good press.
After all, until we have hardware as powerful as a human brain it is
probably foolish to think we'll be able to create human-equivalent (or
greater) intelligence. (There is the farfetched possibility that we could
make a human equivalent out of less powerful hardware -- if we were willing
to give up speed, if we were willing to settle for an artificial being that
was literally slow. But it's much more likely that devising the software
will be a tricky process, involving lots of false starts and
experimentation. If so, then the arrival of self-aware machines will not
happen until after the development of hardware that is substantially more
powerful than humans' natural equipment.)

But as time passes, we should see more symptoms. The dilemma felt by
science-fiction writers will be perceived in other creative endeavors. (I
have heard thoughtful comicbook writers worry about how to create
spectacular effects when everything visible can be produced by the
technologically commonplace.) We will see automation replacing higher- and
higher-level jobs. We have tools right now (symbolic math programs,
cad/cam) that release us from most low-level drudgery. Put another way:
the work that is truly productive is the domain of a steadily smaller and
more elite fraction of humanity. In the coming of the Singularity, we will
see the predictions of true technological unemployment finally come true.

Another symptom of progress toward the Singularity: ideas themselves
should spread ever faster, and even the most radical will quickly become
commonplace.

And what of the arrival of the Singularity itself? What can be said
of its actual appearance? Since it involves an intellectual runaway, it
will probably occur faster than any technical revolution seen so far. The
precipitating event will likely be unexpected -- perhaps even by the
researchers involved ("But all our previous models were catatonic! We were
just tweaking some parameters . . ."). If networking is widespread enough
(into ubiquitous embedded systems), it may seem as if our artifacts as a
whole had suddenly awakened.

And what happens a month or two (or a day or two) after that? I have
only analogies to point to: The rise of humankind. We will be in the
Posthuman era. And for all my technological optimism, I think I'd be more
comfortable if I were regarding these transcendental events from one
thousand years' remove . . . instead of twenty.

2. Can the Singularity Be Avoided?

Well, maybe it won't happen at all: sometimes I try to imagine the
symptoms we should expect to see if the Singularity is not to develop.
There are the widely respected arguments of Penrose3 and Searle4 against
the practicality of machine sapience. In August 1992, Thinking Machines
Corporation held a workshop to investigate "How We Will Build a Machine
That Thinks." As you might guess from the workshop's title, the