"Vernor Vinge - Singularity" - читать интересную книгу автора (Vinge Vernor)

Vernor Vinge
Department of Mathematical Sciences
San Diego State University



(c) 1993 by Vernor Vinge
(This article may be reproduced for noncommercial
purposes if it is copied in its entirety,
including this notice.)



The original version of this article
was presented at the VISION-21 Symposium
sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and
the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993.
A slightly changed version appeared in the
Winter 1993 issue of _Whole Earth Review_.




Abstract


Within thirty years, we will have the technological
means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after,
the human era willbe ended.

Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can
events be guided so that we may survive? These questions
are investigated. Some possible answers (and some further
dangers) are presented.


_What is The Singularity?_

The acceleration of technological progress has been the central
feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge
of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise
cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of
entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means
by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another
reason for having confidence that the event will occur):
o There may be developed computers that are "awake" and
superhumanly intelligent. (To date, there has been much
controversy as to whether we cancreate human equivalence in a
machine. But if the answer is "yes, we can", then there is little
doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly