"The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" - читать интересную книгу автора (Taleb Nassim Nicholas)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb THE BLACK SWAN PROLOGUE ON THE PLUMAGE OF BIRDS A NEW KIND OF INGRATITUDE LIFE IS VERY UNUSUAL PLATO AND THE NERD TOO DULL TO WRITE ABOUT THE BOTTOM LINE Part 1: UMBERTO ECO’S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION Chapter One: THE APPRENTICESHIP OF AN EMPIRICAL SKEPTIC ANATOMY OF A BLACK SWAN HISTORY AND THE TRIPLET OF OPACITY CLUSTERS 8¾ LBS LATER Chapter Two: YEVGENIA’S BLACK SWAN Chapter Three: THE SPECULATOR AND THE PROSTITUTE THE BEST (WORST) ADVICE BEWARE THE SCALABLE SCALABILITY AND GLOBALIZATION TRAVELS INSIDE MEDIOCRISTAN Chapter Four: ONE THOUSAND AND ONE DAYS, OR HOW NOT TO BE A SUCKER HOW TO LEARN FROM THE TURKEY A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE BLACK SWAN PROBLEM Chapter Five: CONFIRMATION SHMONFIRMATION! NEGATIVE EMPIRICISM Chapter Six: THE NARRATIVE FALLACY ON THE CAUSES OF MY REJECTION OF CAUSES SPLITTING BRAINS REMEMBRANCE OF THINGS NOT QUITE PAST TO BE WRONG WITH INFINITE PRECISION THE SENSATIONAL AND THE BLACK SWAN THE SHORTCUTS Chapter Seven: LIVING IN THE ANTECHAMBER OF HOPE PEER CRUELTY EL DESIERTO DE LOS TÁRTAROS Chapter Eight: GIACOMO CASANOVA’S UNFAILING LUCK: THE PROBLEM OF SILENT EVIDENCE THE STORY OF THE DROWNED WORSHIPPERS THE CEMETERY OF LETTERS A HEALTH CLUB FOR RATS WHAT YOU SEE AND WHAT YOU DON’T SEE THE TEFLON-STYLE PROTECTION OF GIACOMO CASANOVA I AM A BLACK SWAN: THE ANTHROPIC BIAS Chapter Nine: THE LUDIC FALLACY, OR THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NERD FAT TONY LUNCH AT LAKE COMO WRAPPING UP PART ONE Part 2: WE JUST CAN’T PREDICT Chapter Ten: THE SCANDAL OF PREDICTION ON THE VAGUENESS OF CATHERINE’S LOVER COUNT BLACK SWAN BLINDNESS REDUX INFORMATION IS BAD FOR KNOWLEDGE THE EXPERT PROBLEM, OR THE TRAGEDY OF THE EMPTY SUIT “OTHER THAN THAT,” IT WAS OKAY DON’T CROSS A RIVER IF IT IS (ON AVERAGE) FOUR FEET DEEP Chapter Eleven: HOW TO LOOK FOR BIRD POOP HOW TO LOOK FOR BIRD POOP HOW TO PREDICT YOUR PREDICTIONS! THE NTH BILLIARD BALL THE GRUENESS OF EMERALD THAT GREAT ANTICIPATION MACHINE Chapter Twelve: EPISTEMOCRACY, A DREAM THE PAST’S PAST, AND THE PAST’S FUTURE Chapter Thirteen: APPELLES THE PAINTER, OR WHAT DO YOU DO IF YOU CANNOT PREDICT?[41] ADVICE IS CHEAP, VERY CHEAP THE IDEA OF POSITIVE ACCIDENT Part 3: THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN Chapter Fourteen: FROM MEDIOCRISTAN TO EXTREMISTAN, AND BACK NOBODY IS SAFE IN EXTREMISTAN REVERSALS AWAY FROM EXTREMISTAN Chapter Fifteen: THE BELL CURVE, THAT GREAT INTELLECTUAL FRAUD[49] THE GAUSSIAN AND THE MANDELBROTIAN QUÉTELET’S AVERAGE MONSTER A (LITERARY) THOUGHT EXPERIMENT ON WHERE THE BELL CURVE COMES FROM Chapter Sixteen: THE AESTHETICS OF RANDOMNESS THE POET OF RANDOMNESS THE PLATONICITY OF TRIANGLES THE LOGIC OF FRACTAL RANDOMNESS (WITH A WARNING)[55] ONCE AGAIN, BEWARE THE FORECASTERS WHERE IS THE GRAY SWAN? Chapter Seventeen: LOCKE’S MADMEN, OR BELL CURVES IN THE WRONG PLACES[59] IT WAS JUST A BLACK SWAN Chapter Eighteen: THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PHONY LUDIC FALLACY REDUX HOW MANY WITTGENSTEINS CAN DANCE ON THE HEAD OF A PIN? Part 4: THE END Chapter Nineteen: HALF AND HALF, OR HOW TO GET EVEN WITH THE BLACK SWAN WHEN MISSING A TRAIN IS PAINLESS THE END EPILOGUE: YEVGENIA’S WHITE SWANS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS GLOSSARY NOTES BEHIND THE CURTAIN: ADDITIONAL NOTES, TECHNICAL COMMENTS, REFERENCES, AND READING RECOMMENDATIONS PROLOGUE and CHAPTER 1 CHAPTER 3 CHAPTER 4 CHAPTERS 5-7 CHAPTER 8 CHAPTER 9 CHAPTER 10 CHAPTERS 11-13 CHAPTERS 14-17 FRACTALS, POWER LAWS, and SCALE-FREE DISTRIBUTIONS CHAPTER 18 CHAPTER 19 BIBLIOGRAPHY Notes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 59 60 61 62 63 64
Chapter One: THE APPRENTICESHIP OF AN EMPIRICAL SKEPTIC Anatomy of a Black Swan—The triplet of opacity—Reading books backward—The rearview mirror—Everything becomes explainable—Always talk to the driver (with caution)—History doesn’t crawl; it jumps—“It was so unexpected”—Sleeping for twelve hours
This is not an autobiography, so I will skip the scenes of war. Actually, even if it were an autobiography, I would still skip the scenes of war. I cannot compete with action movies or memoirs of adventurers more accomplished than myself, so I will stick to my specialties of chance and uncertainty.