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"The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" - читать интересную книгу автора
(Taleb Nassim Nicholas)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb THE BLACK SWAN
PROLOGUE
ON THE PLUMAGE OF BIRDS
A NEW KIND OF INGRATITUDE
LIFE IS VERY UNUSUAL
PLATO AND THE NERD
TOO DULL TO WRITE ABOUT
THE BOTTOM LINE
Part 1: UMBERTO ECO’S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION
Chapter One: THE APPRENTICESHIP OF AN EMPIRICAL SKEPTIC
ANATOMY OF A BLACK SWAN
HISTORY AND THE TRIPLET OF OPACITY
CLUSTERS
8¾ LBS LATER
Chapter Two: YEVGENIA’S BLACK SWAN
Chapter Three: THE SPECULATOR AND THE PROSTITUTE
THE BEST (WORST) ADVICE
BEWARE THE SCALABLE
SCALABILITY AND GLOBALIZATION
TRAVELS INSIDE MEDIOCRISTAN
Chapter Four: ONE THOUSAND AND ONE DAYS, OR HOW NOT TO BE A SUCKER
HOW TO LEARN FROM THE TURKEY
A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE BLACK SWAN PROBLEM
Chapter Five: CONFIRMATION SHMONFIRMATION!
NEGATIVE EMPIRICISM
Chapter Six: THE NARRATIVE FALLACY
ON THE CAUSES OF MY REJECTION OF CAUSES
SPLITTING BRAINS
REMEMBRANCE OF THINGS NOT QUITE PAST
TO BE WRONG WITH INFINITE PRECISION
THE SENSATIONAL AND THE BLACK SWAN
THE SHORTCUTS
Chapter Seven: LIVING IN THE ANTECHAMBER OF HOPE
PEER CRUELTY
EL DESIERTO DE LOS TÁRTAROS
Chapter Eight: GIACOMO CASANOVA’S UNFAILING LUCK: THE PROBLEM OF SILENT EVIDENCE
THE STORY OF THE DROWNED WORSHIPPERS
THE CEMETERY OF LETTERS
A HEALTH CLUB FOR RATS
WHAT YOU SEE AND WHAT YOU DON’T SEE
THE TEFLON-STYLE PROTECTION OF GIACOMO CASANOVA
I AM A BLACK SWAN: THE ANTHROPIC BIAS
Chapter Nine: THE LUDIC FALLACY, OR THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NERD
FAT TONY
LUNCH AT LAKE COMO
WRAPPING UP PART ONE
Part 2: WE JUST CAN’T PREDICT
Chapter Ten: THE SCANDAL OF PREDICTION
ON THE VAGUENESS OF CATHERINE’S LOVER COUNT
BLACK SWAN BLINDNESS REDUX
INFORMATION IS BAD FOR KNOWLEDGE
THE EXPERT PROBLEM, OR THE TRAGEDY OF THE EMPTY SUIT
“OTHER THAN THAT,” IT WAS OKAY
DON’T CROSS A RIVER IF IT IS (ON AVERAGE) FOUR FEET DEEP
Chapter Eleven: HOW TO LOOK FOR BIRD POOP
HOW TO LOOK FOR BIRD POOP
HOW TO PREDICT YOUR PREDICTIONS!
THE NTH BILLIARD BALL
THE GRUENESS OF EMERALD
THAT GREAT ANTICIPATION MACHINE
Chapter Twelve: EPISTEMOCRACY, A DREAM
THE PAST’S PAST, AND THE PAST’S FUTURE
Chapter Thirteen: APPELLES THE PAINTER, OR WHAT DO YOU DO IF YOU CANNOT PREDICT?
[41]
ADVICE IS CHEAP, VERY CHEAP
THE IDEA OF POSITIVE ACCIDENT
Part 3: THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN
Chapter Fourteen: FROM MEDIOCRISTAN TO EXTREMISTAN, AND BACK
NOBODY IS SAFE IN EXTREMISTAN
REVERSALS AWAY FROM EXTREMISTAN
Chapter Fifteen: THE BELL CURVE, THAT GREAT INTELLECTUAL FRAUD
[49]
THE GAUSSIAN AND THE MANDELBROTIAN
QUÉTELET’S AVERAGE MONSTER
A (LITERARY) THOUGHT EXPERIMENT ON WHERE THE BELL CURVE COMES FROM
Chapter Sixteen: THE AESTHETICS OF RANDOMNESS
THE POET OF RANDOMNESS
THE PLATONICITY OF TRIANGLES
THE LOGIC OF FRACTAL RANDOMNESS (WITH A WARNING)
[55]
ONCE AGAIN, BEWARE THE FORECASTERS
WHERE IS THE GRAY SWAN?
Chapter Seventeen: LOCKE’S MADMEN, OR BELL CURVES IN THE WRONG PLACES
[59]
IT WAS JUST A BLACK SWAN
Chapter Eighteen: THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PHONY
LUDIC FALLACY REDUX
HOW MANY WITTGENSTEINS CAN DANCE ON THE HEAD OF A PIN?
Part 4: THE END
Chapter Nineteen: HALF AND HALF, OR HOW TO GET EVEN WITH THE BLACK SWAN
WHEN MISSING A TRAIN IS PAINLESS
THE END
EPILOGUE: YEVGENIA’S WHITE SWANS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
GLOSSARY
NOTES BEHIND THE CURTAIN: ADDITIONAL NOTES, TECHNICAL COMMENTS, REFERENCES, AND READING RECOMMENDATIONS
PROLOGUE and CHAPTER 1
CHAPTER 3
CHAPTER 4
CHAPTERS 5-7
CHAPTER 8
CHAPTER 9
CHAPTER 10
CHAPTERS 11-13
CHAPTERS 14-17
FRACTALS, POWER LAWS, and SCALE-FREE DISTRIBUTIONS
CHAPTER 18
CHAPTER 19
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Notes
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb THE BLACK SWAN
To Benoît Mandelbrot, a Greek among Romans
PROLOGUE
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